UK Fuel Prices Set to Rise: How to Protect Your Margins

UK commercial vehicle operators are facing a significant, dual cost challenge. Amid a rapidly changing geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows—has created a volatile market environment. Brent crude, which started the year below $65, surged past $100 per barrel on 9 March. 

Goldman Sachs analysts forecast prices will average around $76 per barrel in the second quarter—the highest level in over a year. In late February, diesel sat at a relatively stable baseline of around 118.3p per litre (ex-VAT). This forecasted oil surge alone is projected to push UK pump prices up to roughly 122.5p for diesel (ex-VAT).

Rising fuel costs alone would pressure UK operators. Domestic policy changes are now set to compound that pressure.

On 3 March 2026, Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s Spring Forecast confirmed that the longstanding 5p relief on duty will come to an end on 31 August 2026. From September, motorists will pay 1p more per litre, with the remaining 4p rise phased in over two stages before 1 March 2027. 

If you operate even a modest-sized fleet, you are facing a twofold shock of threats to your margins. But while you can’t control global oil markets or government policy, you can control your operational efficiency. 

The impact of these cost increases becomes clearer when translated into real fleet economics—and into the efficiency gains that can offset them.

(Note: To reflect true commercial accounting, all financial figures and pence-per-litre calculations in this article are stated excluding 20% VAT, as this is reclaimed by registered businesses).

Potential costs for commercial fleets by 2027

Combining Goldman Sachs' oil projections with domestic policy changes, operators can expect a 9.2p per litre increase (ex-VAT) in fuel costs. 

Measured against a late-February baseline of 118.3p, this represents a 7.8% spike in a typical fleet's primary operational expense. This accounts for the projected 4.2p ex-VAT increase from movements in oil markets, combined with the flat 5p ex-VAT equivalent of the government's duty increase. 

Estimated annual cost increases per vehicle

This 9.2p net rise will hit the bottom line differently depending on your vehicle types, mileage, and real-world fuel efficiency.

How these costs will hit your operation

No two fleets are the same, so the true implications of this 7.8% surge will depend on the scale and nature of your operation.^* 

These are tough numbers for every segment of the logistics sector. But fleet operators can take solace in the various routes available to mitigate these cost pressures by cutting other overheads. You don’t need to reduce your operations, but you do need to make them smarter. 

Five cost-saving strategies to protect your margins

Fleets that embrace digital transformation have a much better chance of cushioning the impact of all this volatility.  

Here are five tactics UK logistics leaders use to protect their margins during times of volatility: 

1. Cut down on idling time

Vehicle idling is a hidden money pit that costs companies thousands each year in squandered fuel. Drivers don’t typically mean to do it, but over the course of a long day, it’s all too easy to lose track. 

Grouptyre Wholesale Ltd opted to give their drivers the right information to reduce instances of inefficiency. After installing Samsara across their fleet, they were able to detect whenever a driver had their engine running in neutral. This data gave managers the basis to follow up with targeted coaching for repeat cases. 

Soon, Grouptyre had cut idling times across their fleet by 40%, saving approximately £1,805 per vehicle annually. 

If we project that saving over a similar-sized fleet of 50 vehicles, that would represent a £90,250 net saving, recouping over half of the projected £167,293 price rise. 

2. Motivate defensive driving 

Aggressive driving isn’t just a safety hazard; it’s actively inefficient. Sharp braking and harsh accelerations waste a lot of fuel. But successful behaviour change comes from engaging drivers, rather than lecturing them. 

That’s why firms are exploring new strategies to nudge drivers towards better driving practices. Instead of reprimanding their staff, Allied Logistical Services implemented gamification techniques through the Samsara Driver App to motivate better behaviours. Scorecards and streaks for safe driving created a culture of positive recognition, improving their fuel efficiency from the budgeted 7.5 MPG to 8.5 MPG.

For a hypothetical mid-market haulier covering three million miles a year, a rise of just one MPG translates into £272,760 - far outweighing the projected rise in fuel prices and leaving £105,467 in surplus profit.

With the right incentives diffused across their workforce, any operator can get much more out of what they already have.  

3. Optimise your route planning 

Lower mileage equals less fuel consumed. It sounds obvious, but many leaders would be surprised by how many journeys they could trim, if only they had the right data. 

When companies can analyse their driving activities, they’ll almost always find patterns crying out for rectification. Maybe one route is always snarled up with traffic, causing consistent delays. Maybe certain orders always take longer to fulfil than others. The cumulative effect is wasted resources. 

The Samsara Platform has monitoring capabilities that bring all of these trends under the microscope so companies can act on them. That’s how we empower companies like London PCO firm G&M Direct Hire to prevent over 940,000 unnecessary miles, saving over £400,000. 

An efficiency of this scale would leave any fleet in a much stronger position to weather the ups and downs of the energy market. 

4. Clamp down on fuel theft 

As fuel rises in price, it unfortunately becomes a more desirable target for thieves. Companies are not just losing money at the pump; they're losing it in their yards. 

But fuel theft is notoriously difficult to prevent—unless you have the evidence to prove it. 

You can't catch every instance of fuel theft, but you can build a comprehensive digital record that makes it impossible to ignore. Samsara’s platform allows you to upload fuel card transactions and automatically compare them against real-time fuel level data in your vehicles. This provides an irrefutable audit trail to spot discrepancies that indicate potential theft or unauthorised siphoning.

In addition to the historical record, Samsara offers a fuel theft detection alert that detects potential fuel theft from siphoning. Any sudden drops (5%+) in fuel level trigger with real-time notifications, providing admins with the time and location details required for immediate investigation.

That backbone of data is invaluable for companies like UK breakdown responders Egertons Recovery Group. The same comprehensive data set they use to eliminate £5,700 of fuel waste per month also helps them pinpoint and prevent fuel theft. 

For an enterprise fleet like Egertons, eliminating waste and theft yields massive results—an annual saving of £68,400. No matter your size, the principle remains: protecting your fuel translates directly to protecting your bottom line against rising costs.

By digitising your processes, you can protect your assets and send a clear signal that fuel theft will not be tolerated.

5. Accelerate your EV transition

Fleet operators can leave the rollercoaster of petrol pricing behind by electrifying their fleets. Once you have shifted over to electric vehicles (EVs), many costs that once loomed over day-to-day operations simply melt away. On average, electricity costs around 50% less than petrol or diesel per mile, and EV maintenance is around half the cost for internal combustion engine vehicles. 

Let’s consider this in line with our projections. A notional mid-market fleet of 50 HGVs currently faces a £167,293 rise in fuel costs. Even in the unlikely circumstance that the price of electricity rose in perfect tandem with that of petrol or diesel, a fully electrified fleet would have to absorb a cost increase of £83,647—an unwelcome hike, but a more manageable one. 

These are substantial—and predictable—savings that flow straight back into your business. But the high upfront costs of electrification still deter many fleet leaders from making the transition. 

The most powerful first step you can take is to work out where to start. Fleet leaders need data to identify the most suitable vehicles and routes for initial electrification. Once you have active pilot schemes generating valuable information, the next stages in your electrification journey become ever clearer. 

Take WeFlex, for example. As one of the UK’s largest electric vehicle rental companies, data from Samsara’s Connected Operations platform gives them the confidence to make better operational decisions. That’s how they successfully transitioned 98% of their 2,500+ vehicle fleet to EVs.  

Taking control of the road ahead

Fleet managers can’t control what goes on in the news, but they can control their fuel use. 

Historically, when fuel prices spiked, companies had two bad options: swallow the massive extra cost and watch profits vanish, or have uncomfortable conversations with customers about raising rates. The Samsara Connected Operations platform means you don’t have to settle for either.  

When you can act on real data from across your physical assets, you’ll have the flexibility to keep your pricing steady while your competitors hike their rates. . 

Fuel markets will always be unpredictable, and taxes will come and go. But your business can reduce its exposure to pump price volatility with a positive feedback loop of data that helps you get more value out of everything you can control. It’s time to stop reacting to price fluctuations, and start streamlining your whole system. 

To learn more about how the Samsara Connected Operations platform can help you stay resilient through times of uncertainty, reach out for a free trial. 

*Baseline fleet assumptions for mileage and fuel efficiency (MPG) used in these projections are illustrative but grounded in real-world UK industry averages. High-utilisation delivery van mileage aligns with last-mile tracking data from ClimateXChange/Scottish Government. HGV annual mileage and real-world fuel efficiency estimates reflect standard averages published in the Department for Transport’s Domestic Road Freight Statistics and historical data from Logistics UK.