Samsara Fuel Spend Index

National fleet diesel fell for a second consecutive week, down 2.91% to $5.15. Gasoline was down 1.18% to $4.21. From the W14 cycle peak of $5.49, fleet diesel has now retraced 6.05% over two weeks. The diesel–gas spread compressed for a third week to $0.95.

That's the second weekly decline since the cycle began in late February — a real shift in the rate-of-change. But the external setup tightened this week, not loosened: the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, the Iran ceasefire collapsed mid-week, crude held near $89/bbl, and EIA distillate inventories ran about 6% below the five-year average. The national fleet decline likely reflects fleets working through earlier-week contracted supply, not improving fundamentals — meaning W17 may give some of this back if wholesale conditions hold.

The bigger story this week was the geographic split. California fleet diesel jumped 27.3% in a single week to $6.56, the largest one-week state move of the cycle. Washington rose 22.8% to $6.33. Hawaii printed $7.36. AAA's California state retail average reached $7.33 the same week, and San Francisco's retail diesel briefly crossed $8/gal on April 5 — the first U.S. city ever to do so. Pacific-facing states are absorbing the closed-Strait, lost-refinery-capacity setup faster and harder than the rest of the country. The state spread between the highest and lowest reporting state widened to $2.65, the widest of the cycle.

• Diesel: $5.15 (−2.91% WoW, +56.4% vs Dec 29)

• Gasoline: $4.21 (−1.18% WoW, +42.6% vs Dec 29)

• 2-week diesel change (W14 → W16): −6.05%

• Diesel–gas spread: $0.95 (vs $0.35 baseline)

WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

• Diesel −2.91% WoW to $5.15 — second consecutive decline

• Gasoline −1.18% WoW to $4.21 — also a second consecutive decline

• Diesel–gas spread compressed to $0.95, down from $1.05 in W15 and the W14 peak of $1.15

• Breadth was mixed: 22 states down, 28 up — increases concentrated on the West Coast and Northeast, declines clustered in the Midwest and South

• California fleet diesel +27.3% to $6.56, the largest single-week state move of the cycle. AAA retail diesel for California averaged $7.33 the same week

• Washington +22.8% to $6.33; Hawaii to $7.36; Massachusetts +12.5%

• Largest interior declines: North Dakota −8.6%, Nebraska −8.5%, Wisconsin −7.9%, Oklahoma −7.3%, Alabama −7.1%

• External context: Strait of Hormuz remained closed, the Iran ceasefire was not extended past mid-week, crude held near $89/bbl, distillate inventories ran below the five-year average

WHERE PRESSURE WAS HIGHEST

• Highest diesel states: Hawaii ($7.36), California ($6.56), Washington ($6.33)

• Lowest diesel states: North Dakota ($4.71), Nebraska ($4.72), Wisconsin ($4.75)

• National state spread: $2.65 — widest of the cycle

California's +$1.41 single-week move was the largest absolute state move recorded in this cycle. The drivers are the West-Coast-specific story that's been building for months: Phillips 66 Wilmington offline since late 2025, Valero Benicia idling as of early April, Pacific import lanes exposed to the Strait disruption, and California fuel-blend constraints that concentrate any tightness fast. What was new this week was the magnitude — the structural setup finally caught up to fleet pricing.

WHAT THIS MEANS

National fleet spend has now declined for two consecutive weeks, but the underlying setup that drove the run-up hasn't eased — closed Strait, lost West Coast refining capacity, distillate inventories below the five-year average, sustained crude near $89. The national declines look more like lagged pass-through from earlier-week supply than a forward signal of relief.

Cumulative magnitude is intact: diesel still +56.4% above the Dec 29 baseline, gasoline +42.6%, every state higher year-over-year. The diesel–gas spread at $0.95 is still nearly three times its $0.35 baseline.

Pass-through to consumers is now bifurcated.

• West Coast pass-through is happening now.California, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon households should expect food, freight, and goods pricing to reflect this week's fleet diesel through mid-May.

• Interior may see brief ease before re-acceleration. The W15–W16 declines in ND, NE, WI, OK, AL likely represent contract-priced supply working through. If wholesale conditions hold into next week, those states are likely to see the relief reverse.

• The diesel–gas spread compression is the genuinely new feature. Three weeks of narrowing nationally suggests middle-distillate-specific tightness is incrementally easing relative to gasoline — worth watching independently of headline levels.

Three things to watch in W17:

1. Whether California holds above $6.50 or pulls back. A hold confirms the West Coast structural story is now dominant.

2. Whether interior declines reverse. If ND, NE, WI, OK print back up in W17, the W15–W16 ease was a contract-priced lag, not a real shift in fundamentals.

3. Whether the diesel–gas spread keeps compressing. A fourth consecutive week of narrowing would be the cleanest signal that distillate-specific tightness is genuinely receding.

METHODOLOGY Aggregated weekly average spend per fueling session paid by commercial customers from the Samsara Fuel Spend Index; baseline = week of Dec 29, 2025. All calculations use settled W16 figures (week of April 20, 2026). AAA state-level retail averages and EIA distillate inventory data referenced as cross-checks where noted.

Diesel spend per fueling session declined 2.63% week over week to $5.34, down from $5.49 in W15. Gasoline also declined, by 1.04%, to $4.30. W16 marks the first week-over-week decline in diesel spend since this repricing cycle began in late February, after a two-month run driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure. We're monitoring early W17 data — diesel at $5.19 (−2.92% WoW) and gasoline at $4.17 (−2.94% WoW) in the first-day read — which would mark a second consecutive weekly decline if it holds, though Monday's 6.8% crude spike on renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions has not yet had time to pass through to retail.

• Diesel: $5.34 (−2.63% WoW, +62.03% vs Dec 29)

• Gasoline: $4.30 (−1.04% WoW, +45.64% vs Dec 29)

• 3-week diesel change (W13 → W16): +3.54%

• Diesel–gas spread: $1.05 (vs $0.35 baseline)

(Note: Last week's preliminary diesel figure of $5.53 settled to $5.49 — a $0.04 downward revision. This week's WoW is calculated from the settled W15 figure.)

WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

• Diesel declined 2.63% WoW to $5.34 — the first WoW decline since this cycle began in late February

• Gasoline declined 1.04% WoW to $4.30 — both fuels moved lower together for the first time in weeks

• W15 settled at $5.49, slightly below the $5.53 preliminary flagged in last week's briefing, and stands as the highest weekly print in the dataset to date

• The diesel–gas spread compressed to $1.05, down from $1.15 in W15 — still 3x the baseline ($0.35)

• 8.9% of the total diesel increase since Dec 29 occurred in the last 3 weeks (W13 → W16), a marked slowdown from the W10–W11 pace

• Breadth reversed: 29 of 43 reporting states posted WoW declines versus 14 that rose, compared to 48 of 50 states up in W14

• We're monitoring early W17 (week of April 20) data — diesel at $5.19 (−2.92% WoW) and gasoline at $4.17 (−2.94% WoW) in the first-day read — which would mark a second consecutive weekly decline if it holds

• U.S. crude closed up 6.8% to $89.61 Monday as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed (3 commercial transits versus hundreds normally). Heating oil futures, a middle-distillate proxy for diesel and jet fuel, rose 5%; wholesale gasoline rose 4%

Interpretation: Spend continued lower into the first day of W17 even as crude and heating oil re-priced higher on Monday, suggesting retail is working through W15's peak pricing rather than tracking daily futures. Typical retail lag of one to two weeks means the Monday crude move may not begin showing up until the second half of W17 or into W18.

WHERE PRESSURE IS HIGHEST

• Highest diesel states: Connecticut ($6.25), Washington ($6.16), Massachusetts ($6.10)

• Lowest diesel states: Colorado ($4.51), Nebraska ($4.72), Kansas ($4.81)

• National spread: $1.74 between highest and lowest states

California posted the largest single-week decline (−$1.67), followed by Illinois (−$0.49) and Colorado (−$0.43). The largest WoW increases came from New York (+$0.60), Nevada (+$0.44), and Minnesota (+$0.30). All reporting states remain up year-over-year, with Oregon leading at +76.5% and Connecticut leading in absolute terms at +$2.67.

WHAT THIS MEANS

W16 is the first week since late February in which both diesel and gasoline spend declined. The cumulative magnitude of the cycle remains fully intact — these are weekly rate-of-change shifts off an elevated base, not a reversal of the underlying repricing.

The scale of the move since late December has not unwound. Diesel spend is still +62.0% above the Dec 29 baseline. The diesel–gas spread at $1.05 remains roughly 3x its baseline level of $0.35. Every one of the reporting states is higher year-over-year, with an average YoY increase of +$1.88 and gains of $2.00 or more in roughly half the country.

• Only 8.9% of the total diesel increase since Dec 29 occurred in the last three weeks, down from the much faster repricing in W10–W11

• Week-over-week changes flipped  to predominantly negative in W16 (29 of 43 reporting states down)

• The diesel–gas spread compressed for the first time in the cycle

Taken together, these signals are consistent with a cooling rate of change in fleet spend, even as the structural drivers have not eased.

Regionally, the late-cycle picture continues to evolve. Midwest states that drove W14's inland broadening split in W16 — Minnesota and Michigan continued rising, while Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio were flat-to-down. The Northeast retained leadership at the top of the price distribution, with Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island all holding elevated positions. The largest weekly increase came from New York; the largest decline came from California.

The forward picture is complicated by events after the W16 reporting period ended on April 19.

• Iran's Friday declaration that the Strait was open — which briefly sent oil down 11% — was walked back over the weekend

• Dozens of commercial ships that had prepared to transit remain trapped in the Persian Gulf

• Trump told Bloomberg on Monday that it is "highly unlikely" he would extend the two-week ceasefire expiring Wednesday, and confirmed the Strait stays closed "until a deal is signed"

• Monday markets repriced: crude +6.8%, heating oil +5%, wholesale gasoline +4%

Early W17 commercial fleet data does not yet show pass-through — diesel and gasoline are both continuing lower on the week — but commercial pricing typically trails wholesale by one to two weeks, so the pass-through window opens in the second half of W17 and into W18.

Three things to watch in W17's settled read:

1. Whether the early week's −2.9% diesel decline extends through the full week or reverses as the Monday crude move passes through

2. Whether breadth stays predominantly negative or flips back to positive

3. Whether the diesel–gas spread continues compressing or widens again as middle distillates reprice off the heating oil move

W16, combined with an early W17 read we're still monitoring, marks a potential inflection after 14 weeks of sustained repricing — notable, and set against a forward backdrop of renewed supply pressure that has not yet reached fleet spend.

We’ll let you know if and when it does. 

METHODOLOGY Aggregated weekly average spend per fueling session paid by customers; baseline = week of Dec 29, 2025. W15 preliminary diesel of $5.53 settled to $5.49 (−$0.04 revision). All calculations use settled figures. W16 data is preliminary and subject to settlement revisions; early W17 data referenced in forward commentary is partial-week and will revise as the week closes. External market figures (crude, heating oil, wholesale gasoline) are Monday closing prices from public reporting and are not yet reflected in the weekly retail series. 

Diesel prices rose 4.17% week over week to $5.53, a new all-time high that surpasses the June 2022 energy-crisis peak ($5.50). The four-week deceleration trend is broken — this is a reacceleration, not a plateau. Early Week 15 data shows gasoline collapsing 10.4% on crude's 7%+ drop following Iran ceasefire announcements, while diesel holds firm at −0.26%. The divergence is structural.

• Diesel: $5.53 (+4.17% WoW, +67.46% vs Dec 29)

• Gasoline: $4.37 (+2.33% WoW, +48.16% vs Dec 29)

• 3-week diesel change (W11 → W14): +9.89%

• Diesel–gas spread: $1.16 (vs $0.35 baseline)

(Note: Last week's preliminary diesel price of $5.59 settled to $5.53. This week's WoW is calculated from the settled W13 figure of $5.31.)

WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

• Diesel reaccelerated to +4.17% WoW, up from +2.53% the prior week — breaking the four-week deceleration trend (calculated from settled $5.31, not the preliminary $5.59)

• Gasoline increased 2.33% WoW, slowing from +2.50% — diesel WoW overtook gasoline again, reversing last week's flip

• 22.3% of the total diesel increase since Dec 29 occurred in the last 3 weeks (since W11)

• The diesel–gas spread widened to $1.16, up from $1.02 in W13. Last week's spread compression has reversed. Early W15 data shows the spread surging to $1.60, as gasoline collapsed (−10.4% WoW) while diesel held (−0.26%). The structural divergence we describe below is already visible in the data.

Interpretation: In isolation, W13 continued the deceleration trend — diesel WoW dropped from +12.8% (W10) → +4.8% (W11) → +2.9% (W12) → +2.5% (W13). W14 broke that trend with a +4.17% WoW reacceleration, setting a new all-time high at $5.53 that surpasses the June 2022 energy-crisis peak ($5.50). The plateau thesis is not confirmed. Meanwhile, early W15 data introduces a new variable: crude dropped 7%+ on Iran ceasefire news, and gasoline followed it down immediately. Diesel did not. This asymmetry will define the next phase of the market.

WHERE PRESSURE IS HIGHEST

• Highest diesel states: Hawaii ($7.16), California ($7.01), Washington ($6.65)

• Lowest diesel states: North Dakota ($4.84), Montana ($4.95), Oklahoma ($4.98)

• National spread: $2.32 between highest and lowest states

Hawaii posted the largest single-week jump (+$0.74), while Michigan (+$0.47) and Ohio (+$0.40) also saw outsized increases — the Midwest is now seeing the repricing wave that started on the coasts. Only 2 states saw WoW decreases (Utah, Idaho), both modest. All 50 states are now positive YoY, with Oregon leading at +86.3% and Arizona at +$2.82 in absolute terms.

California note: Phillips 66 Wilmington (LA) ceased refining in late 2025, and Valero Benicia (Bay Area) is idling as of April 2026 — a combined 284,000 bbl/day of lost capacity. California's premium reflects real supply constraints, not just regulatory costs.

WHAT THIS MEANS

This week told two stories — and the second one matters more.

The W14 data confirmed what the preliminary numbers hinted at last week: the deceleration was a pause, not a plateau. Diesel reaccelerated to +4.17% WoW, setting a new all-time high at $5.53 that eclipses the June 2022 energy-crisis peak. 48 of 50 states posted WoW increases. The repricing wave is broadening inland, with Midwest states (MI, OH, IL, IN, MN) posting outsized gains.

But the real story is the forward-looking divergence emerging in W15.

The differences from 2022 are structural:

• The 2022 peak was a sharp supply-shock spike that reversed within weeks

• The current repricing has been a grinding 15-week ascent with no reversal signals — 48 of 50 states still posted WoW increases in W14

• At $5.53, diesel is already 67.5% above Dec 29; the 2022 peak ($5.50) has been surpassed

The diesel–gasoline split is now structural, not cyclical. Crude oil dropped over 7% this past week on ceasefire announcements related to Iran, and gasoline — essentially a spot-price product — followed it down within days. Early W15 data shows gasoline collapsing 10.4% WoW to $3.92. Diesel barely moved: −0.26% to $5.52. The spread widened from $1.16 to $1.60 in a single week.

Three structural drivers explain why diesel has a floor that gasoline doesn't:

• U.S. diesel inventories have been running below the five-year average. EIA projects distillate inventories ending 2025–2026 at multi-year lows — potentially the lowest since 2000.

• Refinery capacity losses — Phillips 66 Wilmington, Valero Benicia, and LyondellBasell Houston represent ~284,000+ bbl/day of permanent or semi-permanent closures that tighten the diesel market structurally.

• Diesel has inelastic demand from freight, agriculture, and industry that doesn't flex like consumer gasoline demand. Refiners have been prioritizing diesel yield because margins are better, keeping supply tight even when crude eases.

The strategic question has shifted again: this is no longer about whether prices plateau at $5.53 — it's about whether the Iran ceasefire represents a sustained crude correction or a temporary dip that diesel's structural tightness will absorb. If crude stays lower, we may see the most divergent diesel–gasoline spread environment since this repricing cycle began. The W15 data, once settled, will be the first real test of whether geopolitical relief can offset structural supply constraints.

METHODOLOGY Aggregated weekly average fuel prices paid by customers; baseline = week of Dec 29, 2025. W14 preliminary diesel of $5.59 settled to $5.53; all calculations use settled figures. W15 data referenced in forward-looking commentary is preliminary and subject to settlement revisions.

Diesel prices rose 2.51% week over week to $5.31, extending a 62.50% increase since year start. The four-week deceleration trend appeared intact; however, early Week 14 data already show prices surging to $5.59, a new all-time high that surpasses the June 2022 energy-crisis peak. We’ll continue to monitor throughout the week. 

• Diesel: $5.31 (+2.51% WoW, +62.50% vs Dec 29)

• Gasoline: $4.29 (+2.75% WoW, +45.31% vs Dec 29)

• 3-week diesel change (Mar 9 → Mar 30): +25.09%

• Diesel–gas spread: $1.02 (vs $0.32 baseline)

(Note: Last week's preliminary diesel price of $5.23 settled to $5.18. This week's WoW is calculated from the settled figure.)

WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

• Diesel increased 2.51% WoW, down from +2.97% the prior week (calculated from settled $5.18, not the preliminary $5.23)

• Gasoline increased 2.75% WoW, slightly accelerating from +2.36% — flipping the pattern for the first time, with gasoline WoW exceeding diesel WoW

• 52.1% of the total diesel increase since Dec 29 occurred in the last 3 weeks (since Mar 9)

• The diesel–gas spread peaked at $1.02 this week; early W14 data suggests a sharp compression to $0.76, as gasoline WoW (+12.7%) far outpaced diesel (+5.4%). The gasoline repricing wave we flagged last week appears to be arriving.

Interpretation: In isolation, W13 continued the deceleration trend — diesel WoW dropped from +13.0% (W10) → +4.8% (W11) → +3.0% (W12) → +2.5% (W13). But early W14 data already shows diesel at $5.59, a +5.35% WoW reacceleration that breaks the trend and sets a new all-time high, surpassing the June 2022 energy-crisis peak ($5.50). The plateau thesis is not confirmed.

WHERE PRESSURE IS HIGHEST

• Highest diesel states: California ($6.69), Hawaii ($6.44), Washington ($6.37)

• Lowest diesel states: North Dakota ($4.67), Oklahoma ($4.79), Wisconsin ($4.81)

• National spread: $2.02 between highest and lowest states

California posted the largest single-week jump (+$0.54), while Arizona (+$0.41) and Nevada (+$0.33) also saw outsized increases — West Coast states continue to lead. Only 4 states saw WoW decreases (Idaho, Utah, Indiana, Illinois), all modest. All 50 states are now positive YoY, with Oregon leading at +77.4% and Arizona at +$2.65 in absolute terms.

WHAT THIS MEANS

This week told two stories — and the second one matters more.

The W13 data, taken alone, supported a plateau: diesel WoW gains fell for the fourth straight week, gasoline WoW overtook diesel for the first time, and only 4 states declined. A controlled deceleration onto an elevated base.

But early W14 data has already invalidated that. Diesel jumped to $5.59 — a +5.35% WoW reacceleration and a new all-time high, surpassing the June 2022 energy-crisis peak ($5.50). The deceleration from W10–W13 now looks like a pause, not a plateau.

The differences from 2022 are structural:

• The 2022 peak was a sharp supply-shock spike that reversed within weeks

• The current repricing has been a grinding 14-week ascent with no reversal signals — 46 of 50 states still posted WoW increases in W13

• At $5.31, diesel is already 62.5% above Dec 29; at $5.59 (W14 preliminary), it's 71.1% above

The gasoline convergence is now accelerating. The diesel–gas spread peaked at $1.02 in W13 and early W14 data shows it compressing sharply to $0.76, driven by gasoline repricing at more than double diesel's rate (+12.7% vs +5.4% WoW). The "second front" we flagged last week is no longer a signal — it's underway.

The strategic question has shifted again: this is no longer about whether prices plateau at $5.30 — it's about how far above the 2022 peak they go, and whether gasoline is now entering the same repricing cycle diesel began in early March.

METHODOLOGY Aggregated weekly average fuel prices paid by customers; baseline = week of Dec 29, 2025. W14 data is preliminary and subject to settlement revisions.

Diesel prices rose 3.82% week over week, extending a 59.99% increase since year start as weekly gains continue to moderate from their early-March peak.

• Diesel: $5.23 (+3.82% WoW, +59.99% vs Dec 29)

• Gasoline: $4.13 (+1.52% WoW, +39.99% vs Dec 29)

• 3-week diesel change (Mar 2 → Mar 23): +23.14%

• Diesel–gas spread: $1.09 (vs $0.31 baseline)

WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

• Diesel increased 3.82% WoW, down from +4.82% the prior week

• Gasoline increased just 1.52% WoW, sharply moderating from +6.59% the prior week

• 50.1% of the total diesel increase since Dec 29 occurred in the last 3 weeks (since Mar 2)

• Diesel WoW (+3.82%) again exceeded gasoline WoW (+1.52%), continuing to widen the spread

Interpretation:

The deceleration trend that began in W12 continued this week — diesel gains have dropped roughly 70% from their W10–W11 peak, and gasoline increases have nearly flattened. Prices are transitioning from active repricing to an elevated plateau.

WHERE PRESSURE IS HIGHEST

• Highest diesel states: Connecticut ($6.65), Washington ($6.33), California ($6.14)

• Lowest diesel states: Montana ($4.82), Oklahoma ($4.87), North Dakota ($4.88)

• National spread: $1.83 between highest and lowest states

Nevada posted the largest single-week jump (+$0.91), while Connecticut (+$0.57) and North Dakota (+$0.35) also saw outsized increases. Only 5 states saw WoW decreases (Virginia, Vermont, Indiana), confirming upward pressure remains broadly distributed. Connecticut leads the nation in YoY increase at +86.0%.

WHAT THIS MEANS

The headline risk has shifted. Four weeks ago, the concern was the speed of the repricing. This week, the concern is where prices settle.

• Diesel WoW gains have dropped from +14.8% (W10) to +3.8% (W13) — a clear deceleration — but on a base that is now 60% above Dec 29

• Gasoline is flattening faster than diesel (+1.5% WoW vs +3.8%), which means the diesel–gasoline spread ($1.09, up from $0.31) is now the primary margin pressure point for diesel-heavy fleets

• 43 of 48 reporting states still posted WoW increases — the repricing is slowing but not reversing

• If next week's diesel WoW drops below +2%, that would confirm a plateau; a reacceleration above +5% would signal a second wave

The strategic question is no longer whether prices are rising — it's whether $5.20+ diesel is the new normal or an overshoot that corrects.

METHODOLOGY Aggregated weekly average fuel prices paid by customers; baseline = week of Dec 29, 2025.

Diesel prices rose 4.82% week over week, extending a 49.31% increase since year start and following two weeks of rapid escalation.

• Diesel: $5.03 (+4.82% WoW, +49.31% vs Dec 29)

• Gasoline: $4.07 (+6.59% WoW, +28.18% vs Dec 29)

• 3-week diesel change (Feb 23 → Mar 16): +36.20%

• Diesel–gas spread: $0.96 (vs $0.20 baseline)

WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

• Diesel increased 4.82% WoW, down from +13.16% the prior week

• Gasoline increased 6.59% WoW, also moderating from prior double-digit gains

• 80.5% of the total diesel increase since Dec 29 occurred after Feb 23

• Gasoline WoW (+6.59%) exceeded diesel WoW (+4.82%) for the first time since the acceleration began

Interpretation:

Weekly increases have slowed significantly—diesel gains dropped by roughly two-thirds from peak—but prices remain elevated following a rapid repricing period.

WHERE PRESSURE IS HIGHEST

• Highest diesel states: Washington ($6.37), Hawaii ($6.23), Connecticut ($6.22)

• Lowest diesel states: North Dakota ($4.56), South Dakota ($4.75), Nebraska ($4.76)

• National spread: $1.81 between highest and lowest states

Price pressure remains geographically concentrated, with coastal and Northeast states sustaining the highest absolute costs. The Northeast (RI, ME, CT) is now posting the steepest weekly gains, suggesting a lagged repricing wave moving east.

WHAT THIS MEANS

Fuel prices have moved through a three-phase pattern:

1. Stability (through mid-Feb): single-digit weekly changes, gradual drift upward

2. Acceleration (Mar 2 → Mar 9): sustained double-digit weekly increases

3. Moderation (Mar 16): mid-single-digit increases on a higher base

Prices are no longer just rising — they've reset higher:

• Diesel is +49.31% vs baseline

• The diesel–gasoline gap has widened from $0.20 to $0.96

• Cost pressure remains highest for diesel-heavy operations and high-cost states

• All 50 states have higher diesel prices than a year ago (+48.48% YoY nationally)

METHODOLOGY Aggregated weekly average fuel prices paid by customers; baseline = week of Dec 29, 2025.

Diesel prices surged 13.16% week over week — the second consecutive week of double-digit gains — pushing the cumulative increase since Dec 29 to 42.45%.

• Diesel: $4.80 (+13.16% WoW, +42.45% vs Dec 29)

• Gasoline: $3.82 (+10.76% WoW, +20.26% vs Dec 29)

• 3-week diesel change (Feb 16 → Mar 9): +33.68%

• Diesel–gas spread: $0.98 (vs $0.20 baseline)

WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

• Diesel increased 13.16% WoW, slightly down from +14.83% the prior week but still in double-digit territory

• Gasoline increased 10.76% WoW, roughly in line with the prior week's +10.34%

• 77.3% of the total diesel increase since Dec 29 has occurred in just the last two weeks

• All 50 states saw diesel prices rise — no state was spared

Interpretation:

This is now the second straight week of double-digit diesel gains. The acceleration that began in early March is sustaining, not fading. Prices have moved from gradual drift to a full repricing event.

WHERE PRESSURE IS HIGHEST

• Highest diesel states: Washington ($5.93), California ($5.91), Hawaii ($5.82)

• Lowest diesel states: North Dakota ($4.42), Montana ($4.45), Nebraska ($4.59)

• National spread: $1.51 between highest and lowest states

• 28 states above national average, 22 below

Biggest WoW movers: Idaho (+$0.44), Utah (+$0.43), Vermont (+$0.40). No state saw a decline — the repricing is universal across all 50 states.

WHAT THIS MEANS

The fuel market is now clearly in an acceleration phase. Two back-to-back weeks of 13–15% diesel increases have reshaped the cost landscape:

• Diesel has gained over 42% vs the Dec 29 baseline in just 10 weeks

• The diesel–gas spread has widened from $0.20 to $0.98 — nearly 5× the baseline

• The pace of increase has not yet moderated, suggesting the repricing may have further to run

• With 100% of states seeing increases, there is no geographic safe harbor this week

Diesel prices exploded 14.83% week over week — the largest single-week increase in the dataset — catapulting the cumulative gain since Dec 29 to 25.88%.

• Diesel: $4.24 (+14.83% WoW, +25.88% vs Dec 29)

• Gasoline: $3.45 (+10.34% WoW, +8.58% vs Dec 29)

• 3-week diesel change (Feb 9 → Mar 2): +19.71%

• Diesel–gas spread: $0.80 (vs $0.20 baseline)

WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK

• Diesel increased 14.83% WoW, a massive escalation from +2.88% the prior week

• Gasoline increased 10.34% WoW, also jumping sharply from +2.46% the prior week

• 74.6% of the total diesel increase since Dec 29 occurred in this single week and the one prior

• All 50 states saw diesel prices rise

Interpretation:

This week marks the inflection point. After two months of low-single-digit weekly changes, diesel prices suddenly jumped nearly 15% in a single week. Gasoline followed with a 10%+ move. Something fundamental shifted in the market during the last week of February — the gradual drift is over and a rapid repricing is underway.

WHERE PRESSURE IS HIGHEST

• Highest diesel states: California ($5.76), Washington ($5.63), Hawaii ($5.57)

• Lowest diesel states: Montana ($4.08), North Dakota ($4.19), Minnesota ($4.36)

• National spread: $1.67 between highest and lowest states

• 25 states above national average, 25 below — an even split

Biggest WoW movers: North Carolina (+$0.74), South Carolina (+$0.67), Virginia (+$0.67). The Southeast posted the largest dollar increases this week, with the Carolinas and Virginia leading. Biggest declines: North Dakota (−$0.36), Oklahoma (−$0.34), Minnesota (−$0.31) — Plains states bucked the trend.

WHAT THIS MEANS

This is the week the market broke. The data tells a clear before-and-after story:

• Before (Jan–late Feb): diesel WoW changes ranged from −0.4% to +3.2% — normal weekly noise

• After (Mar 2): +14.83% in a single week, with gasoline following at +10.34%

• The diesel–gas spread quadrupled from $0.20 to $0.80 in one week, signaling that diesel-specific supply factors are driving this move

• The geographic pattern is unusual — the Southeast led increases while Plains states actually declined, suggesting regional supply disruptions rather than a uniform demand shock

METHODOLOGY Aggregated weekly average fuel prices paid by customers; baseline = week of Dec 29, 2025.